According to the mainstream media and supposed professional poll-takers, former Vice President Joe Biden has a sizable lead in the national polls, which means very little since the winner of our Presidential elections is determined by the electoral college, and not by popularity.
National polling aside, despite the mainstream media rarely reporting it, many of the more reputable polling data organizations show Biden is now barely holding onto a slim lead in many of the contested battleground states. And that lead could shrink as the election nears.
A team of analysts out of New York-based Wells Fargo Securities predict President Trump will wipe out what little advantage in the polls Biden currently holds following tonight’s first presidential debate.
The group of analysts headed up by Wells Fargo head of equity strategy director Christopher Harvey, stated:
“We think the head-to-head polling prior to even the first debate is subject to potentially significant revision after tens of millions of voters have their first chance to see the two candidates together,”
Trump’s Secret Voters
As in 2016, despite what America was seeing with their own eyes, the mainstream media, and supposed non-partisan polling outlets swore up, down, and sideways that Hillary Clinton would not only break through the supposed glass ceiling, but she’ll do it in a landslide.
Their prediction for a Hillary Clinton blowout came despite the fact that night after night Americans were watching Donald Trump pack 20,000 seat venues to the rafters, while Hillary was having a devilish time just filling high school gymnasiums.
And just like 2016, in 2020 America is witnessing the very same scenario repeating itself.
Photo of Jill Biden event in Nebraska this afternoon. Wtaf is happening??? ?? pic.twitter.com/SAycM5Wcf2
— ???? (@Rockprincess818) September 26, 2020
In 2016, the media claimed that it was not only improbable, but impossible for Trump to win because the polls showed him losing in the six battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Of course, as history showed, in 2016 the Democrats, and their media pundits went home on election night with their tails tightly tucked between their legs.
What the Wells-Fargo team concluded is, similar to 2016, the 2020 race is likely much closer than the pollsters are claiming because they simply refuse to acknowledge the existence, or let alone count, President Trump’s “secret voters”.
But despite ignoring these closeted Trump voters, recent polls are already indicating Biden’s lead is narrowing.
According to RealClearPolitics, Joe Biden’s polling numbers have been trending downward ever through the summer. In July Biden led over Trump nationally had ballooned to double digits and over 6 points in battleground states.
As of September 29th, RCP polling shows:
- Joe Biden has just a 6.1% lead over President Trump in the national polls.
- In battleground states, Biden lead is only 3.6%, which is within the margin of error.
In their analysis, the Wells Fargo team noted that Trump could gain an advantage when it comes to topics like the Supreme Court nomination, gun ownership, and the African American vote, which may not be appearing in polls.
They also wrote that in spite of the ‘Get out the vote’ hype organizations such as the NFL are pushing, they see voter registration trends are benefiting Trump, not Biden.
To Predict What Happens In November, One Only Needs To Look To The Past.
A 2016 exit poll conducted by CNN found 70% of voters thought the Supreme Court was a key issue and those who said so preferred Trump over Hillary Clinton 49 to 47.
Another CNN exit poll from 2018 found 46% of voters lived in a household that owned at least one gun and voted Republican by a 61%-to-36% margin, according to the analysts. Of the 5 million Americans that became first-time gun owners during the first seven months of 2020, 40% were women.
Additionally, the analysts note that recent polls show Biden leading among African American voters by 65 points, which is down from Clinton’s 80-point margin in 2016.
These Presidential Debates Matter
As President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden get set to square off tonight in the first of three presidential debates, their campaigns are on edge knowing that one mistake could spell doom for their candidate.
While in years past, despite the hype, presidential debates did little to move the needle one way or another, but as Americans have come to understand, 2020 has been unlike any other year in our nation’s history.
The Coronavirus pandemic has turned traditional campaigning on its ear, and especially in Joe Biden’s case.
It’s become all too evident that Joe Biden is content on making his case as to why the American people should elect him President sequestered in his Delaware basement.
In any other year, if one candidate had a dreadful debate night, they would hit the campaign trail the next day and spin their performance until their it became little more than a distant memory among voters.
In 2016 for example, by all accounts, President Trump didn’t pull off a good performance against Hillary Clinton in their first head-to-head meeting. But while Hillary decided to hang in Martha’s vineyard, Donald Trump was having huge rallies in 2,3 and sometimes even 4 states a night, which helped him overcome his lackluster showing by the time the second took place.
But in 2020, unlike years past, they’ll be unable to hit the campaign trails as much, which means any major faux pas by either candidate, in particular, any gaffes during this first debate could end any chance to be victorious in November.